Rabu, 12 Juli 2017

Can Bitcoin Be Used For Good?

Something strange is happening to Bitcoin. Once viewed as a way to do business in the darkest corners of the web, the digital currency has rather suddenly become a favorite talking point among humanitarians and international development enthusiasts.

Bitcoin isn’t just for illicit transactions or Internet hobbyists anymore, but for helping the poor, the downtrodden, and the unbanked.

Perhaps Bitcoin can save them! Perhaps Bitcoin can save the world!

Regardless of whether this attitude is realistic—and more on that in a minute—the people focused on demonstrating the social benefits of Bitcoin are challenging existing narratives about the cryptocurrency. While early commentary focused on how Bitcoin might be used to buy drugs online, or for sending money without a paper trail; the social-good argument suggests that these uses were simply the first use-cases in which Bitcoin’s utility became apparent. But there are billions of other potential use. There are, for example, people who face significant obstacles in operating within the formal banking system—and these folks look very different from the shadowy hackers that tend to be seen as the prototypical Bitcoin user. They could be low-wage migrant workers sending money back home to their families, for example, or activists receiving money from abroad during tumultuous times.

Bitcoin do-gooders also propose the idea of using a blockchain to register and record property titles in countries with tenuous land-rights protections. Instead of using paper-based processes, the blockchain would enable the government to register digital titles that cannot be duplicated or easily changed. Which would mean greater accountability for official records.

Think about it this way: Most of the value in developing world communities is locked “dead capital,” or property that cannot be leveraged as collateral for loans or long-term contracts, because ownership of the property is not easily verifiable with a title or deed. In other words, even if someone owns property, that person may not be able to prove ownership sufficiently enough to gain access to money for future long-term investments.

That’s according to the development economist Hernando de Soto, who proposes fixing this problem by registering digital versions of property titles into a distributed blockchain like Bitcoin. By being entered into the blockchain, there would be an immutable record of title that could not be easily tampered with or destroyed.

At first glance, this seems like a great idea. But using the blockchain to “solve” land-title problems rests on a shallow, incomplete understanding of the challenge at hand. The complexities of how land titles are managed in developing countries is the result of long-standing conflicts between grassroots communities, their governments, and large multinational corporations. By assuming the problem is mainly about bureaucratic inefficiencies and paper-based processes, Bitcoin enthusiasts ignore the hardest part of the situation: long-standing conflicts over rights and power. Sadly, the focus on documentation via blockchain overlooks the key insights we can learn from de Soto’s work: that land rights struggles are a high-touch, long-term issue.

Yet the allure of blockchain as silver bullet is powerful. The writer Courtney Martin aptly describes the tendency to embrace such narratives as the  “reductive seduction of other people’s problems,” whereby the bright-eyed American idealist feels capable of solving intricate problems with one-dimensional solutions. As difficult as it is can be for Americans to grasp the full complexity of systemic inequality in their own backyards, Martin argues, it’s much more challenging for Americans to understand the full complexity of problems in places far removed from their daily lives. The idea that blockchain could be a transformative tool for social change underscores this same problem: People often don’t take the time to understand the problems they’re trying to solve, because they believe they already know the solution.

Blockchain enthusiasts like to give the example of a poor farmer or a low-wage migrant worker receiving a low-cost money transfer from a loved one far away. And the cost of money transfer is a real issue. Sub-Saharan Africa remains the most expensive region in the world to send money to, with average fees in the range of 9 percent to 10 percent, according to the World Bank. But Bitcoin wouldn’t necessarily make transactions cheaper. The price of transacting over Bitcoin depends on how much demand there is to use the network at a given time. While the number of transactions over Bitcoin has been steadily rising over the last few years, the processing capacity of the network (that is, the volume of transactions that can be processed per second) has remained static. What that means: If transaction volumes continue to grow without a commensurate increase in processing capacity, then transaction fees are likely to climb well above the cost of credit cards or bank transfers.

On top of that, wait times for those transactions to be fully processed have become increasingly erratic, causing a record number of complaints from customers trying to pay with Bitcoin.

Cryptocurrency Might be a Path to Authoritarianism

Extreme libertarians built blockchain to decentralize government and corporate power. It could consolidate their control instead.

All over town, the parking meters are disappearing. Drivers now pay at a central machine, or with an app. It’s so convenient I sometimes forget to pay entirely—and then suffer the much higher price of a parking ticket. The last time that happened, I wondered: Why can’t my car pay for its own parking automatically?

It’s technically possible. Both my car and my smartphone know my location via GPS. My phone already couples to my car via Bluetooth. An app could prompt me to pay for parking upon arrival.

Or imagine this: My car, which is already mostly a computer, enters an agreement to lease time from a parking lot, which is managed by another computer. It “signs” this contract just by entering the lot and occupying a parking space. In exchange, the car transfers a small amount of Bitcoin, the currency of choice for computers, into the parking lot’s wallet.

With computers handling the entire process, I’d never even be able to forget to pay for parking. The only way to fail would be for my car to run out of Bitcoin, in which case the parking lot has easy recourse: Because my car’s ignition is managed by a computer, the parking lot could just shut my vehicle down.

Scenarios like this are possible when blockchain—the digital transaction record originally invented to validate Bitcoin transactions—gets used for purposes beyond payment. In certain circles, the technology has been hailed for its potential to usher in a new era of services that are less reliant on intermediaries like businesses and nation-states. But its boosters often overlook that the opposite is equally possible: Blockchain could further consolidate the centralized power of corporations and governments instead.

In his book Radical Technologies, the urban designer Adam Greenfield calls cryptocurrency and blockchain the first technology that’s “just fundamentally difficult for otherwise intelligent and highly capable people to understand.” I was relieved when I read this, because I have been pretending to understand cryptocurrencies—digital money based in code-breaking—for years. Bitcoin is hard to grasp because it’s almost like a technology from an alien civilization. It’s not just another platform or app. Making sense of it first requires deciphering the political assumptions that inspire it.


Bitcoin is an expression of extreme technological libertarianism. This school of thought goes by many names: anarcho-capitalism (or ancap for short), libertarian anarchy, market anarchism. Central to the philosophy is a distrust of states in favor of individuals. Its adherents believe society best facilitates individual will in a free-market economy driven by individual property owners—not governments or corporations—engaging in free trade of that private property.

Without Drugs, What's the Point of Bitcoin?

The trial of the Silk Road founder reveals enormous flaws in the decentralized currency.

The trial of Ross Ulbricht, which began last week in Manhattan, doesn't lack for entertainment value. The 30-year-old is accused of founding and administering Silk Road, an online market that allowed users to buy and sell illegal drugs using bitcoins as currency. Founded in 2011, prosecutors allege that Silk Road generated $1.2 billion in revenue—including an estimated $80 million paid in commissions—until the FBI shut it down in 2013. Ulbricht has pled not guilty. But whatever the verdict, the legacy of Ulbricht's high-profile case may strike a blow against Bitcoin's future viability.

The idea behind Bitcoin is simple. Unlike modern fiat currencies like the U.S. dollar, Bitcoin has no supervising authority, no regulation, and no central bank. Users can use bitcoins to buy and sell goods anonymously without any outside interference. The idea has caught on. Created in 2009 by an unknown entity called "Satoshi Nakamoto," Bitcoin has begun to enter the mainstream. Companies like Amazon, CVS, and Victoria's Secret now accept them as legal tender.

"Bitcoin is insanely traceable," Nicholas Weaver, a researcher at University of California Berkeley's International Computer Science Institute told the Verge.

As an unregulated currency, Bitcoin appeared to be a natural fit for the illicit drug market. But while Bitcoin is anonymous, it isn't untraceable. When users convert bitcoins to hard currency, their name becomes linked to a "public blockchain" that comprises the entire transactional history of the bitcoin. This would be equivalent to a $20 bill containing a comprehensive history of every person who has touched it since emerging from the printing press. These public blockchains make it very easy for law enforcement officials, once users' identities are compromised, to understand the full extent of their illicit activity.

Bitcoins, of course, are used for more than just drugs. But even in legal markets, the currency's volatility makes it an unattractive bet for would-be investors. Everyone knows that the fall in oil prices gutted Russia's ruble, which lost more than half of its value in 2014. But Bitcoin fared even worse, falling 76 percent. And unlike the ruble, which Moscow can rescue through manipulating interest rates and instituting capital controls, Bitcoin's lack of a central bank means there's nothing to stop it from sliding even further.

Why is Bitcoin so volatile? Although generally thought of (and used as) a currency, bitcoins are better thought of as an asset bubble, the Washington Post's Matt O'Brien argues. The supply of bitcoins increases when investors "mine" new ones, a process that involves using supercomputers to solve difficult mathematical equations. Because this process is expensive, miners borrow (real) money to finance it. This routine worked well in 2013, when bitcoins were worth more than $1,000 each. But when bitcoins lose their value, investors cannot mine each bitcoin to pay off their loans—a fate that struck Mark Karpeles, a Tokyo-based owner of the world's largest Bitcoin exchange who was forced to file for bankruptcy early last year.*

Ross Ulbricht's trial will focus on far more than the currency he used for facilitating the drug trade. But while Bitcoin itself will remain legal and popular, its potential to rival traditional forms of currency appear unlikely to materialize.

How Many Tulips Can You Buy With One Bitcoin?

See that big number up there? It’s the current bitcoin-tulip exchange rate. Based off the weighted price of bitcoin from the currency exchange website Mt. Gox, and updated every 15 minutes, it calculates just how many tulips you could buy with one bitcoin.

As of publication, the number was in the 700s.

It’s a silly way of getting at a serious question: Is bitcoin a bubble? The digital currency has now been the subject of a giddy U.S. Senate hearing, a Federal Reserve economist’s advisory letter, and oodles of bemused press. Since briefly losing value when law enforcement shut down the online black market Silk Road in October, the currency’s value has almost unstoppably climbed. A single bitcoin—little more than $13 a year ago—now costs over $1000.

“All I can say is that the crash is going to be great,” proclaimed technology writer Adrian Chen in the New York Times last week. “Bitcoin is too dependent on speculative mania to be of practical use as a currency.”

Bitcoin's sudden rise has people thinking about the ludicrous heights that tulips achieved in the Netherlands in the 1630s. At the peak of that bubble, a single tulip bulb could cost more than ten times a craftsman’s annual salary. While some of these prices were “justified” by market forces—the rarest breeds were enviable luxury goods—the speculation bore common tulips aloft too, raising their price 26 times in January 1637 before, a week later, it fell to one-twentieth of the peak price.

“This is worse than the tulip mania,” a former Dutch central bank president said yesterday about bitcoin. “At least then you got a tulip [at the end], now you get nothing.”


What does speculation like that look in action? The Atlantic investigates. Here are some charts.

As of today, you can buy more than 700 tulips with one bitcoin. That’s a precipitous rise in value—at the beginning of October 2013, you couldn’t even buy 90 tulips with one bitcoin.

Now: My methods aren’t scientific. In trying to calculate the price of a single tulip stem, I consulted a major floral online retailer, a local florist, and a tulip grower in California. They variously presented the price of a single flower at $1.66, $1.50, and $1.00. I’ve settled here, imprecisely, on the gloriously accurate median of $1.50/tulip.

Talking to those folks, I learned that the Dutch still dominate the modern-day political economy of tulips. Tracy Callahan, the president of Bethesda Florist in Bethesda, Maryland, estimated that 85 percent of tulips on the east coast—85 percent of those $1.50 tulips—are grown in Holland.

American florists work out bulk deals with brokers, he said, who themselves deal with growers whose families have sometimes been in the flower-growing business for centuries. After working out a deal, florists receive weekly or twice weekly shipments of tulips, each usually with 3,600 stems.

Bitcoin Is No Longer a Currency

Bitcoin might be a bubble or it might be THE FUTURE, but there's one thing it's not: a currency. It's a tech stock. The question is whether it's Pets.com or Paypal.

Now, for the uninitiated, Bitcoin is supposed to be the online currency that will free us from state-backed ones. It's a cryptographically-sophisticated virtual currency you can use to buy real things over peer-to-peer networks without leaving a trace in the real world. The idea is to create money that central banks can't debase and governments can't tax. In other words, digital gold. Actually, make that anonymous digital gold.

Okay, but where do Bitcoins come from exactly? Well, that's where the 21st-century alchemy comes in. Like gold, there's a limited supply of Bitcoins that grows at a limited rate. Anyone can "mine" for new Bitcoins by running a computationally-taxing program on their computer that spits out a lot of garbage, and, maybe, a little (virtual) gold. But there aren't many new ones to be found. And there won't be any after 2040. That's when the system is expected to hits its self-imposed limit of 21 million Bitcoins.

In other words, Bitcoin has a massive deflationary bias. Its money supply is mostly fixed, but the menu of things it can buy is growing. The same amount of money chasing more goods means money will be worth more. Or, put another way, prices will fall in Bitcoin terms.

And that's why it's not a currency, and won't be one until it has a central bank.

Deflation is toxic for any economy, but particularly for an alternative one like Bitcoin. No matter what kind of currency we're talking about, deflation causes hoarding -- why buy something today if you can buy it for less tomorrow? -- that crushes economic activity. The question is what to do about it. In his classic essay on the Capitol Hill babysitting co-op, Paul Krugman explained that the easiest solution is to just increase the supply of money to meet the increased demand for money. In other words, get that printing press going! That stops hoarding, which gets people buying again, which sets off a new virtuous cycle.

But what if you can't print more money? Then the hoarding feeds on itself. With a normal currency, say the dollar, the prices of everything else will keep falling, since everything else is priced in dollars. Falling wages will make debts that aren't falling harder to pay back, which will force more people into bankruptcy -- and then increase demand for dollars even more. In other words, it creates a depression. But with an alternative currency, say Bitcoin, the price of everything else will stay the same, since everything is still priced in dollars, and the price of Bitcoin itself will go up. The increasing price of Bitcoin will increase demand for Bitcoin -- it's a speculative bubble -- just as hoarding is reducing supply. In other words, prices will go vertical.

Partying Like It's 1999
That's why the most mesmerizing site on the internet right now is Mt. Gox. It's the former Magic The Online Gathering Online Exchange (get it, M-T G-O-X) that has gone from being the go-to-place to trade fantasy cards to the go-to-place to trade Bitcoin -- or to gawk at its epic price swings.

It's hard to remember now, but Bitcoin was mostly boring before the last few months. Aside from a brief surge above $30 in mid-2011, its price didn't move around too much. It was the province of libertarian-leaning hackers and not really anyone else, which kept it trading in a narrow band around $10.

How quaint.

Every bubble has a story, and Bitcoin has been no exception. Prices quickly doubled, then tripled, and finally quadrupled in early 2013 as more and more companies began accepting Bitcoin payments. This made some sense if you thought the digital currency was moving from the far fringes to the not-quite-as-far fringes as a payment system. But what happened next did not make much sense at all. The new story was that the botched Cypriot bank bail-in scared so many people into thinking their deposits weren't safe that they moved into Bitcoins instead. Prices quadrupled again -- from $65 to $266 -- in just three weeks.

Then it halved in half a day.

As you can see in the chart below, via Bitcoin Charts, the virtual currency hit an intraday high of $266 on Wednesday, promptly collapsed to $105, rebounded to $180, and then collapsed again to $120. Trading has now been halted until 10 p.m. Thursday night. That's what happens when early adopters cash out their winnings in an illiquid market.

Remember, Bitcoin is supposed to be a safe haven from supposedly unreliable fiat currencies. It's supposed to be like gold. Well, as you can see below, gold and digital gold grew (or rather, didn't) at about the same rate between mid-2011 and early-2013 -- until Bitcoin went on its rampage. Now, we'd certainly expect Bitcoin to grow faster than gold as it goes more mainstream, but we'd also expect some kind of Cyprus-effect, if there is one, to show up in gold too. Even if it's just a blip. There wasn't one.